Staley not going for two, up 7 late in game, after going for it on virtually every 4th down! Harbaugh going for two, Kingsbury down 10 going for it on 4th and goal just inside the 3?? Arians on 4th and 1 handing the ball off, when a qb sneak on fourth and one is 82 or 86% successful, (Brady is over 91% at 3rd and 4th and 1) Collinsworth was having a laugh at the push the Bucs interior linemen got on that 4th down play. In one week idiotic calls caused at least three loses/prevented wins. Arizona got crushed today but that 4th down call was the turning point. Right after the miss, Detroit drove down the field and scored to take a 17-0 lead at the half. What the hell has happened to coaching in the NFL?
"Analytics", which I think is a joke. I'm not talking about simple math, that's important. I'm talking about a theory that suggests going for it on 4th and 2 in the 2nd quarter of a game in September will have the same outcome as going for two to win an important game late in the season. That same theory that presumes all teams are equal, when we know that's simply not true.
if it's analytics then Harbaugh needs a new lesson. analytics say they should have gone for it down 8 but NOT down 1. and coaches aren't paying attention much to analytics which tell them to go for 2 down 4 or 8 or 11 in the 4th quarter yet none have done it.
Going for 2 down 1 only gave the Ravens a 0.6% win advantage over kicking the XP but if he'd have gone for 2 down 8 that is a 1.2% win advantage in the 4th quarter over kicking the XP.
so he definitely wasn't following analytics, just his gut. he didn't trust his defense to keep GB from a FG chance when Rodgers would have had :42 in 4th quarter so he wanted to either win or lose with the ball in his hand. of course Rodgers could have still come down, kicked a FG, and won by 2
but riding analytics got nothing to do with Harbaugh's decision
Going for 2 down 1 only gave the Ravens a 0.6% win advantage over kicking the XP but if he'd have gone for 2 down 8 that is a 1.2% win advantage in the 4th quarter over kicking the XP.
so he definitely wasn't following analytics, just his gut. he didn't trust his defense to keep GB from a FG chance when Rodgers would have had :42 in 4th quarter so he wanted to either win or lose with the ball in his hand. of course Rodgers could have still come down, kicked a FG, and won by 2
but riding analytics got nothing to do with Harbaugh's decision
the geeks have taken away from old school NFL Football.
I will say I agree with Harbaugh's move, if Rodgers wins the toss in OT Ravens lose by 6.
I will say I agree with Harbaugh's move, if Rodgers wins the toss in OT Ravens lose by 6.
Another genius, and a lot of coaches make a mistake on this, is Denver's head coach. In this case, he only lost four seconds, but if you call a timeout before the two-minute warning you are saving something less than 40 seconds. Call if under two minutes, and you are saving a full 40 seconds. Somehow coaches have devalued the field goal when kickers are better and more consistent than ever. Points on the board are still important.
This is exactly what I tried to explain in my post the other day.
For example...... 4th and 2 on your opponents 15 yard line and analytics say go for it rather than kick the FG. However, let's say you are up 6 with 1:10 left in the 4th and the FG puts you up 9 points. It is an easy decision. KICK IT. Iv'e seen coaches not kick it in similar situations.
ha you guys are still pushing this as a decision based on analytics when, in fact, it's the exact opposite. You should be bitching about a coach not following the math but instead going by his gut. He passed up the earlier 2-pt decision that gave him a +1.2% better chance of winning and went for the one that gave him a lesser (0.6%) chance of winning. I'd have kicked an XP on both TD but the analytics told him to do the opposite of what he did on both of them
I'm thinking "analytics" takes many different shapes and sizes and tweaks, something different to different people. I doubt there's some single uniform book on analytics.
it's about geeks applying their theories and formulas to athletics
can't wait to see the nerds wearing headsets on the sidelines
it's about geeks applying their theories and formulas to athletics
can't wait to see the nerds wearing headsets on the sidelines
I don't think the Ravens going for 2 was the right move because of analytics or anything purely math based, I think the Ravens going for 2 was clearly the right move because their defense sucks now, they're a horribly depleted unit that Rodgers was likely going to get the best of no matter what they did, so go for 2 and hope to end the game as fast as possible. They were nearly 10 pt dogs for a reason. They're not a good team in their current carnation, they've lost several of their best players for the year as well as many other key pieces.
Its weird people watch these inferior teams lose close games to elite QB's all the time and think they shouldn't be trying to up the variance.
They go for 2 and get it, he probably drives for a FG anyway
It goes to OT, he probably drives for a TD or FG, whatever he needs.....Anyone saw the game knew it was a minor miracle the score was 31-30
The playcall was dusty (and I try not to get into criticizing playcalling much since I think it gets pretty subjective, obviously every playcall seems bad once it goes awry) but that is another issue for another time
Its weird people watch these inferior teams lose close games to elite QB's all the time and think they shouldn't be trying to up the variance.
They go for 2 and get it, he probably drives for a FG anyway
It goes to OT, he probably drives for a TD or FG, whatever he needs.....Anyone saw the game knew it was a minor miracle the score was 31-30
The playcall was dusty (and I try not to get into criticizing playcalling much since I think it gets pretty subjective, obviously every playcall seems bad once it goes awry) but that is another issue for another time
I get the analytics, problem is most coaches don't. It happened again yesterday. The Bears on 4th and less than 1 went for it, but did not call a QB sneak! They didn't make it! Over 82% of the time a Qb sneak works on 3rd and 4th and 1. Brady and Roethlisberger are well over 90% in that situation. On 4th and 2 the conversion rate is over 50% however it's less on the 2 yard line (no fear of getting beat deep, less field to cover) Last time I checked it was around 47.8%. Can't find the website so feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.
No real problem with the Harbaugh there. Big problem with what the Chargers coach did last week vs KC. 4th and 5 in chip shot FG range and pass on FG? Passed on a FG later in 2H up by 4! FG puts them up 7.
My point is that game situations must also be factored in not just blindly looking at analytics.
My point is that game situations must also be factored in not just blindly looking at analytics.
Clearly the game plan there was going for basically every 4th down cause they know FG are not gonna beat KC. Questionable strategy but that was the strategy nonetheless and I give him props for not bailing on it after the first one or two was unsuccessful. If that's what you wanna do going in you have to be willing to accept that you won't be 100% on them.
In both games that Harbaugh lost by going for two, there's one huge variable not being mentioned.
In both games, it's the Ravens that had momentum. They were playing on emotional highs
Furthermore, the Steelers are challenged offensively. No reason to think they were going to March down and score. With the Packers, the coin flip is obviously more important. Still you stopped them in the 4th and you do have a 50/50 chance to win the flip
Does anyone know the record of NFL teams that went for two to decide the game? I'm thinking it's far below the average of going for two. But I can't find it
In both games, it's the Ravens that had momentum. They were playing on emotional highs
Furthermore, the Steelers are challenged offensively. No reason to think they were going to March down and score. With the Packers, the coin flip is obviously more important. Still you stopped them in the 4th and you do have a 50/50 chance to win the flip
Does anyone know the record of NFL teams that went for two to decide the game? I'm thinking it's far below the average of going for two. But I can't find it
Vrabel on third and inches calls an idiotic play. Just fall forward (qb sneak) for the first down. None of the coaches realized that Gb had ten men on the field on the winning FG!?!?! I've coached high school football and I've never had 11 kids on the field! Barnes stays in the hook zone on the kick when he should have been trying to block the kick. He should have been in that zone during the game to prevent the few passes completed. So they sent nine men vs ten to try and block the winning kick! Unbelievable!
